They found a group of superforecasters who consistently outperformed the benchmark, competitors, prediction markets, and amazingly even intelligence agents with access to classified information. Tetlock and his team started the US government-funded Good Judgment Project which took tens of thousands ‘ordinary’ people and asked them to forecast global events.
This book draws on many cognitive biases (systematic thinking patterns) and practical field experiments. The New York Times called it “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow.” You will follow the story of how Philip Tetlock -a leading scientist- and his team study how people make predictions and how this will help you make better forecasts and decisions. This book is brilliant and shares the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future. Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction Top 10 Decision-making books for leaders 1. The list below is not ranked as these decision-making books specialize in a variety of areas.
We love these questions as we are avid readers ourselves and we write these articles to share the decision-making books we have recommended most often with you. This is particularly important when dealing with high-stakes, complex decision-making.ĭuring our training and consulting projects, many of the professionals we work with ask us for brain and behavior book recommendations. Scientific insights from behavioral psychology and neuroscience require leaders to re-think many of their assumptions about how people -including themselves- think, decide, and act.
This article focuses on decision-making books that we believe every leader should read -or learn more about.
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